Research from South Australia examined the predictive value of the three most common tools used to select students for Medical courses: previous academic performance, cognitive aptitude and non-academic qualities (assessed in an interview). A four-year retrospective cohort study revealed that previous academic performance was the most consistent predictor of future performance.
The authors of the study published in BMC Medical Education concluded that "The continued use of multiple selection criteria to graduate entry medical courses is supported, with GPA remaining the single most consistent predictor of performance across all years of the course. The national admissions test is more valuable in the pre-clinical years, and the interview in the clinical years."
Ruth Sladek, Malcolm Bond, Linda Frost, Kirsty Prior. Predicting success in medical school: A longitudinal study of common Australian student selection tools BMC Medical Education, 16, 187 dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12909-016-0692-3
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